Saratoga is the most important meet of the summer season for horseplayers. The highly anticipated 40-day Saratoga racing season lasts throughout the heart of the summer, running six days a week (every day except Tuesday) from Friday, July 20 until Labor Day, Monday, Sept. If you are a serious horseplayer and you are not already looking forward to the Saratoga meet, it might be time to check. There are several facets of Saratoga that every handicapper should know, and there are some strategies that I recommend for beating the upcoming 2012 meet or at least putting the percentages in your favor over 95 percent of the wagering public. How the Tracks Play. On most days the Saratoga main track plays very kindly to speed horses.

Saratoga Racecourse kicks off the weekend racing with a dozen thoroughbred races that include five graded stakes races as well as the regular mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden matches.

The Grade III races are the Troy Stakes and the Waya Stakes, and the Grade I races include the Ballerina Stakes, the Longines Test Stakes, and Runhappy Travers Stakes.

Virtually the entire Runhappy line-up consists of Road to the Kentucky Derby hopefuls, including Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law, Shivaree, Country Grammer, Uncle Chuck, Max Player, Caracaro, and South Bend. But there are no “Road” points awarded in this race, so why all the high-level interest?

A purse worth a million bucks, of course.

The forecast for Saturday in Saratoga Springs, New York, calls for partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain, highs in the low 80s, and winds at six mph.

I cover all five of the stakes races here, but you can find the full card of the day’s races, including entries, jockeys, and wagering options, at our top-rated horse racing betting sites.

Post time for the first race Saturday at Saratoga Racecourse is 12 PM (EDT). Now, let’s take a look at my predictions, picks, and tips.

• Post Time: 3:42 PM
• Purse: $300,000
• Type: STAKES
• Distance: 7 furlongs
• Conditions: A Handicap For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward

• 1 Serengeti Empress, L Saez, 5/2
• 2 Cookie Dough, J R Velazquez, 12/1
• 3 Victim of Love, J Lezcano, 15/1
• 4 Bellafina, J L Ortiz, 9/5
• 5 Letruska, R Santana, Jr., 5/1
• 6 Pink Sands, I Ortiz, Jr., 10/1
• 7 Come Dancing, J Castellano, 3/1

I like the moneyline’s choices in this stakes race, but I like the 5/1 Letruska even better. Jockeyed by Ricardo Santana, Jr., this four-year-old filly finished in the money ten of her 11 career starts—and won nine of them. And those weren’t just your standard allowance and claiming races—many of those nine were graded stakes races, including the Added Elegance Stakes at Gulfstream in June and the Clasico Diamante in Mexico last year. This is a professional horse.

At 15/1, I think Victim of Love, with Jose Lezcano in the irons, is a good show bet. This four-year-old filly moneyed nine of her 15 career starts, winning five of them.

• Letruska

RACE 8 – Troy Stakes (Grade III)

• Post Time: 4:22 PM
• Purse: $200,000
• Type: STAKES
• Distance: 5-1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 27 feet)
• Conditions: For Four Year Olds And Upward. If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at Five and One Half Furlongs on the Main Track

• 1 Imprimis, J L Ortiz, 8/5
• 2 American Sailor, T Gaffalione, 12/1
• 3 Lonhtwist, J R Velazquez, 20/1
• 4 Shekky Shebaz, I Ortiz, Jr., 5/2
• 5 Pure Sensation, K Carmouche, 3/1
• 6 Pulsate, M Franco, 15/1
• 7 Chewing Gum, J Rosario, 9/2

I’m more inclined to go with the moneyline in this race, so I’m betting on the 8/5 favorite, Imprimis, with Jose L. Ortiz aboard. This six-year-old gelding finished in the money eight of his 13 career starts, with seven of those wins.

The longest I would go in this stakes race is 12/1, so that means a show bet on American Sailor, with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. This eight-year-old gelding is the most experienced in this field, with 26 money finishes out of 44 career starts (he won 14 of those).

• Imprimis

RACE 9 – Waya Stakes (Grade III)

Saratoga Race Track Betting Tips Betting

• Post Time: 5:02 PM
• Purse: $150,000
• Type: STAKES
• Distance: 1-1/2 miles (turf)
• Conditions: For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. In the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee

• 1 Mrs. Sippy, J Rosario, 6/5
• 2 Beau Belle, M Franco, 10/1
• 3 Quiet Dignity, T Gaffalione, 20/1
• 4 My Sister Nat, J L Ortiz, 2/1
• 5 Olympic Games, I Ortiz, Jr., 4/1
• 7 Fools Gold, J Castellano, 5/1

Also Eligibles:

I like the third-favored (4/1) entry in this race—Olympic Games, piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr. The math says this four-year-old filly has the best record in this field, with six money finishes out of eight career starts, three of them wins.

I can’t resist a 20/1 longshot in a stakes race like this, so I’m planting a big two-dollar show bet on Quiet Dignity, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. This four-year-old filly moneyed in six of her 11 career starts, winning one of them.

• Olympic Games

RACE 10 – Longines Test Stakes (Grade I)

• Post Time: 5:39 PM
• Purse: $300,000
• Type: STAKES
• Distance: 7 furlongs
• Conditions: For Fillies Three Years Old

• 1 Up in Smoke, L Saez, 12/1
• 2 Perfect Alibi, T Gaffalione, 20/1
• 3 Mrs. Danvers, J L Ortiz, 8/1
• 4 Wicked Whisper, R Santana, Jr., 20/1
• 5 Gamine, J R Velazquez, 3/5
• 6 Venetian Harbor, J Rosario, 8/5

I’m going with the 3/5 moneyline favorite here, Gamine, with John R. Velazquez in the irons. This three-year-old filly would have a three-for-three record of wins/starts had not she tested positive in May for high levels of lidocaine—a common local anesthetic used by veterinarians—and was stripped of her win at Oaklawn back in May. Still, she’s tanned, rested, and ready for this new battle.

I’m buying a show ticket on Perfect Alibi, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, and only because the moneyline is daring me with the longshot 20/1 odds. This filly finished in the money five of her seven career starts, winning three of them.

• Gamine

RACE 11 – Runhappy Travers Stakes (Grade I)

• Post Time: 6:15 PM
• Purse: $1,000,000
• Type: STAKES
• Distance: 1-1/4 miles
• Conditions: For Three Year Olds

• 1 First Line, D Cohen, 30/1
• 2 Country Grammer, I Ortiz, Jr., 6/1
• 3 Uncle Chuck, L Saez, 5/2
• 4 Max Player, J Rosario, 6/1
• 5 Shivaree, J Alvarado, 30/1
• 6 Tiz the Law, M Franco, 1/1
• 7 Caracaro, J Castellano, 10/1
• 8 South Bend, J L Ortiz, 15/1

Saratoga Race Track Betting Tips 10

The moneyline agrees with me and the rest of the Western World in believing that Tiz The Law—winner of the Belmont Stakes this year and scoreboard leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby—is most likely going to win this race. Some might look at the slightly more impressive wins/WPS stats of the other jockeys and then wonder why Manuel Franco is aboard Tiz the Law for this run. Well, so far, Franco has ridden Tiz the Law to victory in the Belmont Stakes as well as victory in four other graded stakes races. Sometimes statistics don’t tell the whole story.

At 30/1, I have to buy a show ticket on Shivaree, with Junior Alvarado at the helm. Another Road to the Kentucky Derby probable, Shivaree finished in the money eight of his 12 career starts, winning three of them—most importantly the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. At such longshot odds, Shivaree might even be worth an across-the-board wager.

• Tiz the Law

By Rich Nilsen

Nothing like Saratoga racing in the summer

How can one possibly beat Saratoga, one of the toughest meets that handicappers will face all year long? The top barns converge on the beautiful upstate New York track every summer, and the money of horseplayers everywhere follows in droves. Pools are plentiful, but so are the contentious races. And it is those contentious races that can make Saratoga racetrack so difficult to beat.

I have been going to “the Spa” since I was a young boy. In fact the first trip I know of, there were a couple of two years olds by the name of Affirmed and Alydar running that day. My Dad liked Alydar. My Mom and brother, neither of whom knew how to handicap, were on Affirmed. I guess this was my first lesson that handicapping can be a humbling game.

Over the past several years I have skipped my trip to Saratoga and instead watched this fabulous meet from the comfort of my home. However, that is changing this year as I head back to Saratoga in August. I can’t wait! There is nothing like Saratoga racing in the summer. For a horse racing fan it doesn’t get much better.

There are several facets of Saratoga that every handicapper should know, and there are some strategies that I recommend for beating the upcoming 2012 meet or at least putting the percentages in your favor over 95 percent of the wagering public.

How the Tracks Play

On most days the Saratoga main track plays very kindly to speed horses. It can be very difficult to make a wide move on the turn for home, sustain that run and get up for the win. The predominant speed bias, of course, is more prevalent the shorter the distance, but on many days, the tracks favors speed in all of the dirt races.

However, there is always a range of days at Saratoga when the speed bias not only disappears but the track starts to strongly favoring closers. This is one of the most important times of the meet for the serious player. Catch on to this reverse bias early enough and you could “make your entire meet” in a matter of days. It will happen so keep an eye out for it.

In my opinion the two turf courses can be very inconsistent, especially from one year to the next. Just because the inner turf course favored closers in one mile races last year doesn’t mean that is going to happen in 2012. In general both turf courses give the edge to closers, but there are plenty of races and plenty of days when that is not the case.

Do beware of the inside posts in the now commonly-run 5 1/2 furlong turf sprints. The rail (one post) has only had four winners from the last 129 races. That is pretty remarkable; especially when you consider that every turf sprint features a horse breaking from the rail. Middle and outside posts are the best draws in this swiftly run races.

Winning Strategies for the Spa

Have a game plan. How often do we approach an important meet like this and we have no idea what we are hoping to accomplish and how we are going to wager from one day to the next. The overwhelming majority of players, myself included, oftentimes just shoot from the hip. We will make plays based on the races we handicap and “who we like.” We will make all sorts of bets, from straight wagers to stabs at the Pick Six.

The better choice is decide what your game plan is going to be prior to opening day. It is certainly fine to make various types of bets, but you may want to focus most of your wagering strategy on one or two bet types. Maybe you are good at structuring Trifecta or Pick-4 wagers. Well, there you go. Having a game plan falls right into the next suggestion.

Pick your spots. This is the key to beating the meet. You are not going to finish ahead by the time Labor Day rolls around if you are playing every available race at the Spa. This simply isn’t going to happen, with rare exceptions.

Needless to say, this is good advice year-round for horseplayers but especially so for Saratoga due to all the contentious races. Handicappers looking to turn a profit over the 40 days have to pick their spots. Focus on the races you excel at and avoid the ones you typically don’t have a good handle on. You know what they are, so use that knowledge to your advantage. Or pay the consequences.

More Advice

Keep a horses to watch list starting…yesterday. Follow the action every day and take note of horses who were “up against it” for various reasons. It may be a typical Saratoga speed bias and you see a horse that made a strong wide, middle move only to flatten out in the lane behind the gate-to-wire winner. Or maybe it is a contender who breaks from the rail in a turf sprint and encounters a difficult trip as a result. There are numerous, valid reasons why horses don’t run well. We will offer any troubled trips runners we see in our FREE “Off the Charts” Trip Notes feature here at AGameofSkill.com.

Know the barns that win, and the ones that don’t. Typically, some of the best claiming barns during the other 10 months of the year (at both Aqueduct and Belmont Park) hit the skids when they come to Saratoga. There are exceptions to this rule, such as Richard Dutrow and Rudy Rodriguez, who learned his trade under Dutrow.

Trainer Chad Brown, who apprenticed under the great Bobby Frankel, may not be a household name, yet, but he has been the best trainer to follow and support over the past two years. Brown, unlike many trainers, wins at a high percentage in all types of races. Two of his best categories are runners making their second start off a layoff and claimers dropping in class.

Trainer Todd Pletcher is the leading horsemen and almost always over bet. Look for every opportunity you can to beat the Pletcher-trained underlays. Surprisingly, Pletcher has been very poor in turf races over the past few years, hitting only 14 percent. I don’t have the specific numbers, but can you imagine how many of his losers on the lawn were 4-1 or less. Instead, look for opportunities to play solid grass trainers such as Chad Brown, Bill Mott, Linda Rice, Tom Proctor, Jonathan Shepard, George Weaver, both Dutrows, and Kiaran McLaughlin.

Keep an eye on the weather. There are few meets where Mother Nature can wreak havoc more than at Saratoga. If you are handicapping a day or two out, be sure to check the weather forecast before you waste time handicapping a turf race that might not happen.

If the races do come off the lawn, and the track is indeed wet, be sure to closely examine each horse’s record for their off-track performances. Horses with proven fondness for the slop or mud are the ones most likely to succeed on a wet main track at the Spa. Think long and hard before you wager your dollars on a horse that either lacks a wet track pedigree or lacks a proven record on that type of going.

Summary

You can enjoy the best meet in the country without wagering on every race. Pick your spots, be prepared and focus on your strengths. If the race is too tough, pass. Sit back and watch as you may see a horse or horses to bet on later in the meet.

Best of luck!